Economic growth spurt | Bangkok Post: business

Growth soars to 18.9 per cent

Q4 data likely to bring 2012 figure to 6.4 per cent

Published: 19 Feb 2013 at 00.48
Online news:

The Thai economy expanded sharply year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2012, reflecting a rebound from the impact of widespread floods in late 2011.

Gross domestic product grew by 18.9 per cent in the three months to December from a year earlier after expanding a revised 3.1 per cent in the previous quarter.

The latest figures released Monday marks the fastest growth since Thailand began compiling data in 1993, according to the report of the National Economic and Social Development Board.

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Eric
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Discussion 10 : 19 Feb 2013 at 10.3810
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Don't think the foreign investors are relying on the comments in this forum.FDI at its highest, sovereign bonds, equities, properties all positives. Positive GDP & current account, infrastructure spending, domestic spending, Mynmar & Indo-China free markets, subdue political environment all looks very attractive for economic growth. Least to say inflation under control and according to BOT property is not at bubble stage. Foreign reserve continue to build and Baht showing the Strength of the economy.
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onlyasking
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Discussion 9 : 19 Feb 2013 at 09.219
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The growth was +- two thirds investment and +- one third consumption. If one should discount the consumption increase which includes the vehicle scheme the economic growth was 4,3%. Most countries would settle for that.
The increase in the SET is not driven by the Thai's but by foreign investors thats seeking higher yields. If the market turns it will hit these foreigners more than the Thai's. Only wealthy Thai's invest in the SET and they can afford the knock.
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pjt
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Discussion 8 : 19 Feb 2013 at 09.208
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My question: When the non performing loans (NPL) and loan losses from things like the rice pledging, first time home and car scheme and the soft loans to SME (to combat min wage increase) all start coming in do they have to be deducted from GDP? We seem to be taking credit without recognising the underlying costs. There are already disturbing (and predictable??) reports about the level of NPL in a number of these schemes and more important the entities involved in financing them
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bluebottle
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Discussion 7 : 19 Feb 2013 at 08.387
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Nothing to do with the rice pledge or the 1.2 million cars sold then.You may be able to fool some all the time all some of the time but not a farangs.
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ianprince
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Discussion 6 : 19 Feb 2013 at 08.006
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Check the numbers. It could be another white lie by the Thai govt.
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bkposter
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Discussion 5 : 19 Feb 2013 at 07.365
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I believe the GDP rise is attributable to minimum wage increase. I also believe that it is accompanied with larger inflation numbers. If you are in the category of living on minimum wage, then the government has helped you, but if you are in the category of trying to run a business that is dependent on exports then the government has likely hurt you. And if you are in the retail business in country you will be helped. The problem is that with current inflation Thailand is not competitive with other countries in SE Asia and this could hurt future growth drastically.
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whatajoke
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Discussion 4 : 19 Feb 2013 at 07.164
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Fairly meaningless stats without a few qualifiers. 18% in context to a 10% contraction in Q4 2011, partly exasperated by govt incompetence in making the flood damage worse. So, looking at the adjusted 3.6%, taking into account that a huge debt was incurred from the rice pledge, and that the auto sales was a false driver, there's nothing spectacular about this. But as you and I well know, there is a noticeable extra amount of money slowshing around which is felt among the voters, micro economics at its best, but quesionable macro econonics.
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musashi
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Discussion 3 : 19 Feb 2013 at 07.023
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The PE of many companies are not supported by earnings. The exuberant market helped built up to achieve favorable swap ratios for the gush of funds and companies looking at M&A here.

Take a look at any stocks (eg. symbol "TCC") and we can see the ridiculous PE of 41.3, totally not backed by any earnings or future growth. The shareholding family has cornered the market, and controlling the price movements.

These family controlled public entities in Thailand are ripe for some serious shorting. See how long they can last holding the prices up. My bet? They will fall like dominoes.
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oldairman
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Discussion 2 : 19 Feb 2013 at 06.582
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External demand will be a bigger factor driving the economy in the wake of the global recovery.

Nobody want to buy the rotting rice at 40% above the average world price. Half the world export markets can't afford to buy Thai products because of the exchange rates, the cost of oil is going up as is domestic demand for fuel for the extra 1m cars.
In the chart they are comparing with 1988 values.
I would love to live in his world where I wouldn't need rose tinted glasses.
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boons
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Discussion 1 : 19 Feb 2013 at 03.411
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Haha. If *this* doesn't sound the alarm loud and clear, you are either very young, or you have absolutely zero knowledge of markets and economics.

A 19% rise in GDP is so far beyond the boundaries of unsustainable growth that it should be enough to send any reasonable investor running for the hills (with his gains).

This is just pure insanity. Growth like this is not natural and absolutely not repeatable over the long term. Of course, Thais are not the most experienced investors and hundreds of thousands of them will be lured into the waters where the markets will slaughter them.

Be warned. This ends badly.
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