Abhisit: at what price?

[Minnie]

does anyone have a fly swatter, there's a couple buzzing round here.

From Thaicrisis.
He makes some very good points.

Being Tarisa, the Bank of Thailand’s governor
Published 7 January 2009 Bank watch , Economy 3 Comments
Nation publishes an interesting interview of Tarisa, governor of the Bank of Thailand. I guess it has been reviewed so we can understand this interview as official (sometimes Nation takes some “creative liberty” with reports and facts…).

It’s like Being Tarisa. And it explains the way the BOT is seeing the world… Like all the other central banks around the world… The Rabbit Hole and the Wonderland are never far away.

A few quotes.

The impact on exports will be evident in the new year, as well as the impact on tourism of the recent political problems. These are issues for which we must find a solution, as exports and tourism are vital to sustaining the economy.

Right. With the base effect, exports will show truely ugly figures in 2009. But what does “find solutions” mean ? When there is a global slowdown, with a global lower demand, how Thailand could “find solutions”, new markets for its exports ?

The moon perhaps or some other solar systems ?

Monetary policy cannot bolster spending, but helps to lower interest expenses. Fiscal policy has limits, as it takes time before it can be approved. We think it can boost the economy, but consumers might still not spend.

Bingo. At least, the BOT understands this universal rule : You can take a horse to the water but you can’t make him drink. Even with interest rates at zero, with free money, if people don’t want to buy new cars… you’re toasted.

US, Europe face this problem.

Don’t be panicky: it will not be like that. We experienced a 10 percent economic contraction in 1998, but it will certainly not be like that this time around for many reasons.

The problems did not originate here; we have only been affected [by outside events]. We are currently strong enough [to withstand the shock] and are not staggering as we did during the 1997 crisis. We have adjusted ourselves both in terms of the macroeconomy and financial institutions.

A nice nonsensical fireworks… The problem didn’t started in Thailand, therefore the country would be insulated ? It’s totally meaningless. The crisis is global. And Thailand rely on exports, like all the asian countries.

As for the “strong enough”… she should add “until now”. What if the crisis is worsening ?

More importantly, we do not have a bubble economy problem in either the property sector or the stock market. The impact of the crisis will not be large if the economy does not bubble up. If a bubble were to develop and burst, then the economic situation would abruptly worsen - but it is not like that now.

Sure there is no bubble in the stock market… because it has already exploded (read “5 years wiped out“) ! As for the property sector… again what is important is not now… but tomorrow. I’m still wondering who is going to live in the thousands of new condos under construction in Bangkok…

In 1997, the economy contracted by 10 per cent, pushing the overall unemployment rate to 6 per cent. Unemployment will certainly not reach 6 per cent this time, but it does stand at about 1 million people. There is a similarity with the 1997 situation in that the business sector is affected and unemployment is rising, but the degree of the problem is different.

Last time, the unemployed went back to the rural areas, but they did not [have the opportunity to] do much farming. This time the sector’s ability to cope with the crisis is higher. Although many farm prices, such as rice, rubber and corn, have declined, they are still higher than in the past.

Nonsense. In 97, people lost their job and went back upcountry but had problem to do farming… Tarisa should explain us how 10 years later, such reversed exodus would be easier !

In 10 years, a lot of people started to work in industry… and actually it would be much more difficult for them to go back now to farming !

This is a sign : the thai elite is overconfident and believes in a “thai model” that simply doesn’t exist anymore… They think that if unemployment explodes, mai pen rai, they will send back the people in the fields to grow rice, and all the problems will be solved.

It’s wishful thinking.

If it is necessary, yes, as has been experienced in many countries such as the United States and Japan. But if it’s not necessary, this should not be done. A near zero rate has many disadvantages. If we do anything, it is like the bullet is already away. We then have no tools [left] and must find others, which has many disadvantages and is impractical.

This is a pearl… What a nice ingenuity. Indeed, zero interest rate has “many disadvantages and is impractical”.


I;ll include more later but if would like to read them for yourselves go to:http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/

[villager]

Hi MINNIE , as i have wrote before when it comes to researching the facts you have few equals , however i almost sure that the 97 far eastern financial crisis did indeed start here in Thailand .

[Just-1-Voice]

It seems, at least to me, that the politicians, and even the press, tend to look at thing through rose colored glasses, and fail to grasp the reality of the situation. It’s like they have this silly grin plastered on their faces while they all repeat the same memorized mantra: “Oh, yes, things are not good today, but tomorrow will be fine!”

Unemployment will certainly not reach 6 per cent this time, but it does stand at about 1 million people.

Excuse me, but the Minister of Tourism stated last month that as a direct result of the actions of PAD, over 1.5 million Thai will lose their jobs this year. Are they not aware of those figures, or just chose to ignore them and hope they go away?

And what of the companies, despite the global economy, who have decided NOT to invest in Thailand, but are now investing in Vietnam and Malaysia? I suppose that’s ok with them as well? And the companies that have already pulled out, and those in the process, I guess Thailand doesn’t need them either?

If you listen to “Those in the Know”, I guess not.

[Minnie]

From Thaicrisis word press.
excellent column, should make every tax paying Thai very worried....give a few years and the IMF will be back...

Abhisit is indeed a perfect thai politician : he has a skill for non-sensical statements, blurred in the famous thai fog of war.

Consider this piece :

Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva on Friday conceded that the Ministry of Finance was considering foreign borrowing as a channel to bring funds to stimulate the country’s economy.

Admitting that his government is looking for loans abroad, Mr. Abhisit said that “seeking offshore loans must take into account terms, conditions, and procedures. It takes time,” he emphasised, and “the finance ministry is considering the matter with caution.”

Mr. Abhisit said offshore loans need not only be used to finance mega-project implementation, but could also support smaller projects.

However, he cautioned, the ministry could not yet reveal how much capital it will seek, because it must first review Thailand’s overall economic performance data.

The premier admitted the government’s tasks to solve the current economic problems are especially demanding because it must face political conflict at home and the global economic crisis abroad.

The economy will remain in disarray in the first and second quarters of this year, he stated, but should begin to improve in the third quarter after the government’s economic revitalisation plan is put into practice. (TNA)

We have several admissions here :

-the coffers are empty. The government needs more money.
-they are looking outside Thailand…
-but they don’t know (ah ah ah ah) how much they need or how much they could ask.

How much and to do what exactly ? Nobody knows. And Abhisit doesn’t know himself. It’s the “wet finger” policy.

Change with Abhisit ? Yes we can’t.

and some more from Thai crisis....

[villager]

Hi MINNIE , as i have wrote before when it comes to researching the facts you have few equals , however i almost sure that the 97 far eastern financial crisis did indeed start here in Thailand .

Hi Minnie, is there any chance of answer to my post

[Just-1-Voice]

Villager....

Here, this link should pretty well answer your question to Minnie in regards to the '97 Financial Crisis.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asian_crisis

[villager]

Villager....

Here, this link should pretty well answer your question to Minnie in regards to the '97 Financial Crisis.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asian_crisis

Thanks J1V,it would appear that my suspicions are confirmed that the financial crisis did actually start here in Thailand, I was in Samui at the time and the 90Baht to the pound looked a little unreal , i remember too that many of the big hotels refused to take their own currency, i recall too of the rumour going round that certain high flyers in government knew well in advance and made a nice piece of change out of the crisis.

[Just-1-Voice]

Mr. Abhist, or should I say: “Mr. I Would Sell My Soul To The Devil To Be Prime Minister”, has made various statements that I find somewhat interesting since becoming Prime Minister:

1) Mr. Thaksin should return to Thailand and fight the charges against him
2) Those who violate the law must be prosecuted (He even told one of his MP’s he should not use his position to his advantage if the courts proceed against him.)
3) He want to restore confidence in the rest of the world in Thailand

All noble statements, I admit, and ones to be expected from a career politician, but now can he prove to us, both Thailand and the rest of the world, the sincerity of his words with the actions to back them up, or are he merely the “Pretty Boy Puppet” who is tied to the strings of those who really control him?

Mr. Thaksin should return to Thailand and fight the charges against him
Normally I would agree with that. However, in light of the fact that judicial system in Thailand is a joke, do you really believe he could have a fair hearing? But let’s assume for a moment that he could face an unbiased and honest panel of judges (does such a thing really exist in Thailand?) and is found not guilty based on evidence. Would he then be free to once again become involved in Thai politics, or would there be other forces working against him to try and prevent that at all costs?

It is my understanding, and I hope someone will correct me if I am wrong, that when allegations of vote fraud were filed against the PPP, that similar charges were also filed against the Democratic Party. I assure you that I am not the only one somewhat perplexed by the fact that the courts moved with unusual swiftness to find the PPP guilty, while completely dismissing the charges against the Democrats without so much as an investigation into them. Is this Thai Justice at its finest? If so, I, and others who think as I do, do not blame Mr. Thaksin for fleeing.

Those who violate the law must be prosecuted & restoring confidence in the rest of the world in Thailand.
If Abhist has any hopes of restoring the confidence in Thailand in the eyes of the rest of the world, then he needs to be a man of his word and have the leaders of PAD brought to justice and subjected to the same “equal justice” that Mr. Thaksin was subject to. The rest of the world is watching to see what he and the court system of Thailand do in regards to the terrorist group known as PAD for their illegal and criminal activities. Shall we list them a few of them?

1) Illegal occupation of Government House.
2) Ignoring court orders to vacate Government House.
3) Theft of both personal and government property from Government House
4) Breaking into a security area within Government house and stealing computer hard drives and discs containing sensitive national information.
5) Illegal possession of sensitive national information.
6) Attacking police with “deadly weapons”, i.e.; iron bars, golf clubs, baseball bats, explosives devices and guns.
7) Illegal occupation of two airports
8) Destruction of government property in the form of police vehicles by slashing tires and smashing windows.
9) Death of a police officer trying to perform his sworn duty by running over him with a pickup truck.
10) Illegal use, and probably illegal possession, of firearms, as well as explosive devices.
11) The death of one of their own that was beaten to death and found in a back room of the airport after the occupation.

Do I really need to go on?

The world wide recession and global economy is taking a toll on everyone, and Thailand is no exception. However, I go back to a statement by Thailand’s own Minister of Tourism who stated that “as a direct result of the actions of PAD, over 1.5 million Thai who work in tourist related businesses will lose their jobs next year”. He had predicted that, even with the global economy, they expected 15.5 million tourists this year but now, thanks to PAD, that number will be cut in half, if not more. These are not my comments and estimates, but those of Thailand’s own Minister of Tourism.

The world watched in stunned amazement as terrorist thugs in yellow took control of Bangkok, did whatever they wanted, whenever they wanted, to whomever they wanted, and absolutely nothing was done to stop them in any way. And now their leaders are walking the streets as free men, instead of behind bars where they belong.

Also unbelievable by the rest of the world, and probably the majority in Thailand, is the appointment of the Foreign Minister, who publicly stated that the takeover and occupation of the airport was “fun”. And Abhist, completely excused his statements by saying that since he made them prior to his appointment, it was okay. I wonder would he feel the same if one of his daughters was raped, and the rapist was then appointed as head of an “Ant-Rape Commission”, saying that since he raped your daughter before his appointment, it was okay? PAD “raped” Thailand, Mr. Abhist, and you are not only condoning the rapists by your actions, but rewarding them as well, as evidenced in today’s BP that key PAD members are being selected as “advisors” and “secretary” to key position in the government.

Trust me when I say that every one of those 300,000 stranded passengers, who might have actually had a wonderful vacation up to the point of the airport being taken over by terrorist thugs, is going to think long and hard about ever coming back to Thailand. They are also going to tell all of their friends about what happened, and those people will also have 2nd thoughts about coming to the “Land of Smiles”. And those people will tell others, and so on, like a pebble dropped into a pool of water, sending out ripples. The week following the take over of the airport I read a report that stated over 10,000 Germans canceled their reservations to Thailand. How many others from other countries have done the same thing now because of PAD?

I had personal friends who were at the airport when the PAD terrorists took over, and I can assure you that their account of what it was like does not, in any way, coincide with the statements of your newly appointed Foreign Minister as being “fun” in any way.

I have heard statements that tourism dropped off after the tsunami and the SARS scare, but it soon picked up again. I would like to point out to those people that those two incidents fall into the category of “natural disasters”, while what happened with the siege of the airport was completely man made.

Prior to this current appointment, Abhist has tried three times I believe to become Prime Minister, and been defeated all three times. Now he has what he wanted. Now let’s see if he can truly be a Prime Minister for all of Thailand and insure that justice truly is served on the guilty. The people of Thailand are not the only ones watching to see what he does. The rest of the world is watching as well. His failure to act in a swift manner in this is not only going to continue to damage the tourist industry, but will also have a seriously dampening effect an any company or individual who was even considering coming to Thailand to establish a business, and from what I understand, there are many who have already closed up shop and left.

Having been educated in the West, I’m sure he’s familiar with the saying: “The ball is in your court.” My question is: “What is he going to do with it?”

[farang2x]

Thanks for the propaganda from Mr. T.
The most corrupt figure ever in Thailand,with billions of unreported loot overseas.
You just try to say other people are as bad as he is. No many good people here, just Mr. T and his bagmen show their true colors.

[Just-1-Voice]

farang2x

You MIGHT try reading with an open mind, or take off the PAD Yellow tinted glasses you wear so you an see things more clearly. No where, in any of my posts, in any topic, have you, or anyone, read that I am a supporter of Thaksin. It's unfortunate that the brainwashing techniques of PAD teach you that if someone ISN'T a supporter of Yellow Shirt Terrorism, then they HAVE to be a Thaksin supporter. How sad to live in such a biased and hate filled existence.