Ausiris Futures Co expects the upward trend of stock and gold prices will extend after the US Federal Reserve's surprise decision to maintain its monthly asset purchase programme.
Managing director Tanasin Gleeblumjeak said fund flows will head back to emerging markets and gold after the Fed refrained from pulling back its monetary easing.
He said the run-up in the Thai stock market and gold could last until the US economy fully recovers.
Stock futures, however, will be more active than gold futures as the baht's strength will pare some gains of the local gold price.
"For every one baht of appreciation, the price of gold falls by 600-700 baht per baht-weight. The fund flows back to Thailand could cap local gold price rises at a smaller pace than the global price," Mr Tanasin said.
He expects the gold price will reach $1,480 to $1,500 an ounce this year, while gold investment will turn to a loss of 7-8%.
The 2-trillion-baht borrowing bill to finance infrastructure projects should lift stock sentiment in the construction and bank sectors, he said.
He expects trading volume of overall SET50 index futures contracts will increase from 200,000 a day to between 250,000 and 300,000 a day in the fourth quarter.
Mr Tanasin expects Ausiris Futures' trading volume ratio for SET50 index futures will decline to 60% by year-end from 70%, while the gold price will increase to 40% from 30% as the higher number of investors will shift to trade gold after its price rebounds.
For medium- and long-term prospects, gold will likely decline on the back of the US recovery, so investors should keep monitoring developments in the US quantitative easing, he said.
Ausiris Futures has a market share of 13-14%% for gold futures with 50-baht-weight contracts plus 7% for 10-baht-weight contracts and 1% for SET50 index futures.
The company plans to maintain the ratio throughout this year.
Mr Tanasin tips SET index futures support at 1,030 and then 950 points, with resistance at 1,070 and then 1,100.
Gold has already bottomed out at $1,280 to $1,290 per ounce, with resistance at $1,480 to $1,500 an ounce.
About the author
- Writer: Nuntawun Polkuamdee
Position: Business Reporter