Recap: Global stocks and commodities rallied broadly last week in a knee-jerk reaction following the US Federal Reserve's unexpected decision to keep its US$85 billion in monthly asset purchases unchanged. The SET on Thursday surged almost 50 points.
The SET Index stayed firmly above 1,400 points throughout last week, trading in the range of 1,428.87 and 1,494.27 before closing on Friday at 1,486.76, up 6.3% from a week earlier, with heavy average turnover of 53.79 billion baht daily. Foreign investors bought heavily with a net position of 10.39 billion baht, followed by brokers at 8.84 billion and local institutions at 3.12 billion. Domestic retail investors were net sellers of 20.34 billion baht.
Big movers: There was no IPO debut last week. Master Ad (MACO), upgraded to the SET from the MAI, rose 12.3% from the week to 9.15 baht. The top three in value were large caps: TRUE gained 17.2% to 8.50 baht, KBANK advanced 8.3% to 196 baht, and SCB added 8.3% to 170 baht.
TMB Bank (TMB), last week's top volume play, fell 2.9% to 2.70 baht. Mida-Medalist Entertainment, last week's top gainer, surged 31.9% to 2.15 baht. Varopakorn (VARO), the top loser, fell 8.1% to 5.10 baht.
Newsmakers: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) surprised the market by maintaining its asset purchase programme. Now the markets are speculating that the stimulus retreat could begin at the next meeting in late October or the following one in mid-December.
- The Fed cut its US economic growth projection to a range of 2% to 2.3% from a June estimate of 2.3% to 2.6%. It sees an improvement in 2014 to a range of 2.9% to 3.1%, down from 3-3.5% forecast earlier.
- The Thai government said it would borrow 60% of the 2 trillion baht it seeks for infrastructure megaprojects from local financial sources and the remaining 40% from issuing US-dollar bonds, starting next year.
- The Commerce Ministry conceded that 2013 export growth will probably miss the target of 7% to 7.5%, but still expects a strong rebound in Q4.
- The Public Debt Management Office said public debt at the end of July was 5.21 trillion baht, or 44.1% of GDP.
- The advent of digital TV, for which licence auctions are planned in mid-December, will draw fresh investment of 100 billion baht for networks, set-top boxes, content and channel operations. Forty-nine bidders are seeking 24 licences.
- Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ (BTMU) has made further progress in its bid to acquire Bank of Ayudhya by agreeing to integrate its Bangkok branch with BAY operations to comply with central bank policy.
- PTT Group has successfully raised 25 billion baht from two bond issues. PTT has sold 10 billion baht in 10-year, zero-coupon bonds in Thailand, while PTTEP sold $500 million in five-year, senior unsecured bonds to foreign investors.
- Krung Thai Bank conceded that more civil servants were overdue on their mortgage repayments, because of the economic slowdown and higher living costs.
Coming up this week: China's HSBC Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI for September is due today, as is euro-zone manufacturing PMI for September. In the US, the S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index for July and consumer confidence index for September will be released tomorrow.
- Thailand will release trade figures for August on Wednesday.
- Other US data due this week include durable goods orders and new-home sales for August on Wednesday, and final second-quarter GDP and pending home sales for August on Thursday.
Stocks to watch: Asia Plus Securities recommends trading buys in commodity-related stocks such as PTTEP and telecom stocks including INTUCH.
Capital Nomura Securities recommends short-term trading for INTUCH, ADVANC, KBANK, BBL, AOT and SCC. To speculate on gainers under the 2-trillion-baht loan bill, it recommends CK, STEC and KTB. For small-cap plays, it recommends UNIQ, SYNTEC and NWR. For a shipping recovery, it recommends TTA and PSL. It also likes domestic consumption plays such as HMPRO and GLOBAL, and tourism seasonal plays MINT, CENTEL, AO, and AAV.
Technical view: Thanachart Securities sees support at 1,470 and resistance at 1,500 and 1,520. Asia Plus Securities tips support at 1,450 and resistance at 1,500 and 1,537.
About the author
Writer: Nuntawun Polkuamdee & Darana Chudasri